I'm absolutely convinced of two things:

Cingular will announce their BlackBerry Pearl 8100 as early as this Monday.

The Cingular BlackBerry Pearl will officially be available on the Cingular website and in Cingular stores on Friday, November 17.

Not only do I rely on numerous tips and leaks for this prediction. I am relying on the logic of the calendar.

Let me explain further.

This next weekend, November 18-19, is the last full shopping weekend before the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S.

The Wednesday before Thanksgiving- November 22/23 this year- is known as the heaviest air travel day of the year.

Where are all those people going on that Wednesday November 22? To join friends and loved ones for Thanksgiving.

What do people do when they visit their friends and loved ones? They take pictures.

What does the BlackBerry Pearl do? Well, duh, it takes pictures. And double duh, it is a perfectly cool cell phone for letting those who are getting ready to pick you up know that "we've just landed."

Not only that, but out-of-town visitors who show their hosts their brand new Cingular BlackBerry Pearl are in a perfect position to act as viral marketers. Enough fun with the Pearl- "hey everyone pose in front of the turkey"- and then maybe the guest who has brought the Pearl gets quizzed about it later.

And maybe the host or co-guest who does the quizzing thinks he/she wants a Cingular Pearl as well. Makes a note to check the Cingular site or stop by a Cingular store when he/she gets home and starts their Holiday shopping.

Now let us look at another release date scenario.

RIM and Cingular could do the big debut the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend- the busiest shopping day of the year.

But I don't think so. Too many crowds, too much clutter, and besides that, so many of the Thanksgiving weekend travelers I have just referenced will be away from their home service areas. Easier to sell these devices to people when they are on their home turf.

Push the launch further back- say to Monday November 27- and you've already given up several shopping days and experiential days as well. You're also ceding valuable shopping days to T-Mobile- who, of course, has had the Pearl in the channels for two months.

I get paid by AOL, not by Cingular. But it is difficult for me not to believe that Cingular will announce their BlackBerry Pearl as soon as Monday of this week.

Then after a few days of anticipation-building marketing and shipping logistics, this coming Friday, November 17, will see Pearl in the stores.