As I have made plain, I do not believe that Judge James Spencer's non-ruling in the Research In Motion vs. NTP patent infringement trial was a non-ruling at all.

Instead, it was one final warning for the stubborn antagonists to settle.

But they are not going to settle. At least not right away.

Over the last few days I have literally been awake at night pondering about what I think is going to happen next.

Although no one- probably not even Judge Spencer himself- can say for sure how these events will develop, I have come up with a forecast that I am willing to stand up for.

You are seeing this forecast first here- and I link to this post on my ZDNet blog as well.

But this is this the blog where those who really care about BlackBerry tend to frequent, so I am posting my forecast here.

OK, this will be quite a ride.

Ready?

Sure you are.  So this is what I think is going to happen and when:

Friday, March 10- Judge Spencer issues a decree summoning both sides for a ruling-hearing for two weeks from that day, which will be Friday March 24.

Friday March 24- Assuming the two sides have not come to an agreement by then, Judge Spencer will declare an injunction, effective in thirty days, which would be Sunday, April 23. Not only would that date be 30 days from the injunction issuance, but its arrival on a Sunday would presumably lessen the BlackBerry network communications infrastructure issues that would arise if the injunction kicked in on a workday.

On a parallel track, Judge Spencer will empower a Federal arbitrator to immediately begin binding arbitration between Research In Motion and NTP.

Friday March 24- In an effort to boost customer and carrier confidence RIM on that day will issue substantial configuration details for their Multi-Mode workaround. Help files will be publicly posted on the Web. On this date, Multi-Mode will be activated, but it will be positioned as a voluntary back-up option.

Friday March 24- RIM will immediately attempt to appeal the injunction, while reluctantly agreeing to binding arbitration.

Monday March 27- After NTP attorneys spend the weekend studying Multi-Mode, NTP will file suit in Judge Spencer's court to block Multi-Mode from being enacted. Judge Spencer will grant a temporary injunction granting NTP's request and blocking Multi-Mode, while throwing Multi-Mode into the topical mix of issues to be discussed during the arbitration phase.

Monday March 27- Friday April 14- RIM will engage in, and exhaust, the appeals process without experiencing any judicial relief.

Friday, April 14- Prodded by arbitration, and RIM by freaking-out institututional investors, the two sides will come to an agreement that will involve either a royalty structure for NTP slightly lower than they had been proposing, a relatively modest stake in RIM, or some combination thereof. These arrangements will have a "Sunset Clause" that would kick into gear in the event of a final invalidation of the five NTP patents by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office - and the final exhaustion of NTP's appeals of those decisions. Months or perhaps even years away, the Sunset Clause would involve provisions that would enable NTP to sell their equity stake in RIM at fair market value, and would terminate any royalty arrangements without prejudice or further financial obligation by either party.

That's what I think is going to happen.

What do you think?